The Stare Down: January 6th

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL (c) vs. THE DEVIL INSIDE 

In the first full week of January 2012, The Devil Inside will attempt the impossible – dethrone MI3: GHOST PROTOCOL from the top spot at the US Box Office.

In the recent past, religious themed horror movies have found quite the home to haunt in US movie theaters.  Nothing scares dollars out of wallets like watching someone get taken over by a demon… am I right?!  Below are a few examples of this trend:

• Exorcism of Emily Rose (9/9/05) – $75M
• Stigmata (9/10/99) – $50M
• Exorcist: The Beginning (8/20/04) $41M
• The Last Exorcism (8/27/10) $41M
• The Rite (1/28/11) $33M

Unless we’re talking about the mother of all religious horror movies – The Exorcist – these movies rarely do more than $50M-$60M on the high side.  The advantage for The Devil Inside is that this film is also pulling from another very successful bucket – the “Found Footage” horror movie.  The Blair Witch Project and the Paranormal Activity franchise  are the massively successful examples of this genre; They are cheap to produce and more often than not hit a home run with the movie going audience.  I highly doubt The Devil Inside is going to reach the same heights.  On the surface, this movie is looking preeeeeeetty close to The Last Exorcism and I’d expect to see a similar performance overall coming in between $40M and $50M .

It’s opponent – the reigning and defending Box Office King of the Hill…. Mission: Impossible IV: Ghost Protocol.  Mission: Impossible has done something very few movies did in 2011 – it’s held on to the top spot for two weeks in a row and is poised to repeat for a 3rd week.   Only The Help was able to do this in 2011 when it held the box office for 4 weeks in a row late this past summer.

While week 3 is typically when you see a movie start to slip down in the box office chart, MI:GP has several factors in it’s corner that will push it to another week on top:

1. The US Box Office has been soft since August – MI:GP is the first movie forecasted to crush it that has.
2. Distribution – MI:GP will be in over 3,400 theaters in the US this weekend.  New movies in wide release – The Devil Inside and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – have a fraction of the distribution and none of the word of mouth buzz.
3. Competition – Current Holiday blockbusters Sherlock Holmes, War Horse, TinTin, and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo are all losing ground at a much faster rate than MI:GP, and the new releases, T,T,S,S, and The Devil Inside, appeal to niche audiences.  The mass appeal edge goes to the current champ.

 Bold Prediction:  Fandango is reporting that The Devil Inside is responsible for 31% of the ticket sales this week which is a really impressive number for any movie- however based on historical trends for this type of movie, my best guess is that we get about $15M opening weekend and a steep drop week over week.  Mission:Impossible will hit it’s 3^rd week slump, and drop between 40%-50% week over week… but even at that rate, it would still bring in close to $16M; enough to take the first week of January.

The Razor: In the presence of chaos, the simplest solution is the right solution.  With so many options – pick the biggest star.  Tom Cruise & Shaun of the Dead & Hawkeye for the win.